Some thoughts after Super Tuesday:
- Democratic Party voters are terrified of losing to Trump. Pants shittingly terrified. Primary turnout was significantly stronger than in 2016 when Democrats thought they were just picking a successor to Obama, not deciding the fate of the planet. Check out Virginia and Texas, in particular, with massive increases from their 2016 numbers.
- The speed with which the center-left of the party coalesced around Biden is stunning. I found it admirable that Buttigieg and Klobuchar were able to recognize they had no path, and support the candidate they believed had the best chance of winning. They put the interests of the party and the country ahead of their short term political interests. (Whether this actually was in the best interests of the party and country remains to be seen, but it’s clear that both candidates believed that.) If Republican primary candidates had behaved similarly four years ago, we might not have ended up with Trump.
- The Democratic Party is older, more traditional, and more ideologically diverse than progressives realize. Sanders did enormously well with young voters of all races but got crushed with voters 45 and over, a much larger part of the electorate. Plenty of Democratic voters still identify as moderates and conservatives. Many of these are African-American and among the Party’s most stalwart voters. They are not revolutionaries, and you can’t win a primary without them. Same with many of the liberals who supported Biden and Warren.
- There is a tendency among many people on the left, myself included, to focus so intensely on ideological cleavages in the party that we miss how non-ideological factors shape electoral coalitions. In a campaign, the best policy platform in the world is worth little compared to relationships and trust. With historically Democratic constituencies, especially black voters, Biden had built a foundation of trust as Obama’s VP, unrivaled by moderates with similarly problematic records on race, like Buttigieg and Klobuchar, and racially progressive candidates like Warren. Sanders, to his credit, recognized this problem as crucial to his 2016 loss, and put in years of work reaching out to those constituencies. He found success with Hispanics and younger black voters who, along with the liberal whites who powered his 2016 campaign, catapulted him to front-runner status. But his commitment to a revolution that would demolish the existing Democratic Party (and national economic system) makes many rank-and-file Democratic voters nervous, even ones who agree with much of his platform. His failure to mollify those concerns – perhaps by showcasing his fairly pragmatic legislative record and gaining endorsements from more middle-of-the-road Democrats (i.e. not just AOC types) — made it harder for a large number of Democrats to view him as electable.
- Progressives certainly have reason to be disappointed at these results, but as a progressive, I want to add some perspective. The Democratic Party of 2020 is significantly different from that of 2008. Joe Biden, a moderate, is running on a platform far to the left of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. He supports a strong public option, which falls short of Medicare for All, but it is something progressives fought unsuccessfully to add in the ACA and would move us closer to universal health care than we’ve ever been. The same goes for Buttigieg, a favorite punching bag of the millennial left. Do they go as far I would like? No. But I’ll gladly take it over the alternative.
- This race is far from over. California has millions of ballots left count, and Sanders’s margins could help offset his losses in smaller Super Tuesday states. If Warren drops out, which is likely, Sanders could further consolidate the left and make it impossible for Biden to hit a majority of delegates, even with Bloomberg out. Biden has yet to prove himself to the part of Democratic base less enthused with his experience and conservative voting record: young people, especially those of color. As the nominee, Biden would need to balance his ticket with a progressive woman of color.
- One final thought: it’s easy to get caught up in the presidential race. It’s important, but we have a House to defend, Senate to take back, and a nation full of Republican legislatures primed and ready to gerrymander the shit out of their states for the next decade – unless we vote them out. That’s the ballgame, and if we lose sight of it, we’ve lost before we’ve even started playing.